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How many points do Wycombe need to avoid the drop?

How many points do Wycombe need to avoid the drop?


With just over eight weeks of the season remaining, supporters of sides at the wrong end of the table can be forgiven for speculating about exactly how many points their team might need in order to avoid the drop.


There's never a way to be sure, but it is possible to make an educated guess based on statistical evidence (and it's a bit of fun).

Below are two scenarios. The first is based on each team's form since the start of the season, and the second takes into account how teams have been performing since the turn of the year.


If each team continued to win the same number of points per game as they have so far this season, the bottom of the table would look like this when it's all over, meaning Wycombe would require 50 points to be certain of survival.


Brighton.......51 pts
Hartlepool....51 pts
Orient..........50 pts
Oldham........50 pts
Tranmere.....49 pts
Gillingham....49 pts
Exeter..........43 pts
Southend.....43 pts
Wycombe.....38 pts
Stockport.....31 pts


However, taking into account the fact that some teams have improved since the turn of the year and some are apparently in freefall, if each of the strugglers continued to win the same number of points per game as they have since 1st January, the bottom of the table would eventually look like this, meaning Wycombe would need 49 points to be sure of avoiding the drop.


Carlisle........52 pts
Tranmere.....52 pts
Orient..........52 pts
Hartlepool....50 pts
Oldham.......49 pts
Gillingham...48 pts
Wycombe....40 pts
Exeter........ 39 pts
Southend... .36 pts
Stockport.....33 pts


So, whichever way you look at it, the Chairboys apparently need to find at least another 20 points from their 11 remaining games, which equates to 5 wins and 5 draws, 6 wins and 2 draws, or just 7 wins!

It all looks highly unlikely, but you never know. A win at Oldham on Saturday followed by another over Exeter at Adams Park next weekend, and things would suddenly look a whole lot brighter!

The great escape starts on Saturday at Boundary Park - Come on Wycombe!

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Click here to join in the debate on the club forum.

Writer:Len
Date:Friday March 12 2010
Time: 12:38AM

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Comments

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Oh to finish 4th from bottom. We (Stockport) can only dream of those dizzy heights. See you in Division 4 next season Chairboys.
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12/03/2010 10:08:00
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League Table

# Team P W D L Pts. GD
C Northampton 46 29 12 5 99 36
P Oxford 46 24 14 8 86 43
P Bristol Rovers 46 26 7 13 85 31
4 Accrington 46 24 13 9 85 26
5 Plymouth 46 24 9 13 81 26
6 Portsmouth 46 21 15 10 78 31
7 Wimbledon 46 21 12 13 75 14
8 Leyton Orient 46 19 12 15 69 -1
9 Cambridge 46 18 14 14 68 11
10 Carlisle 46 17 16 13 67 5
11 Luton 46 19 9 18 66 2
12 Mansfield 46 17 13 16 64 8
13 Wycombe 46 17 13 16 64 1
14 Exeter 46 17 13 16 64 -2
15 Barnet 46 17 11 18 62 -1
16 Hartlepool 46 15 6 25 51 -23
17 Notts County 46 14 9 23 51 -29
18 Stevenage 46 11 15 20 48 -15
19 Yeovil 46 11 15 20 48 -16
20 Crawley 46 13 8 25 47 -33
21 Morecambe 46 12 10 24 46 -22
22 Newport 46 10 13 23 43 -21
R Dag & Red 46 8 10 28 34 -35
R York 46 7 13 26 34 -36
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